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楼主: morobert

[讨论] 大家通常如何评价拿破仑逃离厄尔巴岛的举动?

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 楼主| 发表于 2018-1-25 23:33:13 | 显示全部楼层
iron duke 发表于 2018-1-25 21:25
这是枫丹白露条约,规定是400:
http://www.napoleon-empire.com/official-texts/treaty-of-fontaine ...

照这么看,他要回来也是蓄谋已久的事情了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2018-1-25 23:45:14 | 显示全部楼层
不过眼下很多人还没提到这个主题中最关键的问题,就是拿破仑这次去厄尔巴岛之后该不该回来?有的人说王者归来,有的人说纯粹就是给早已人心思定的法国再添乱子。
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发表于 2018-1-26 06:51:41 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iron duke 于 2018-1-26 06:56 编辑
morobert 发表于 2018-1-25 23:45
不过眼下很多人还没提到这个主题中最关键的问题,就是拿破仑这次去厄尔巴岛之后该不该回来?有的人说王者归 ...

当然是不该回来,回来没给法国带来什么好处(除了多些英雄主义故事),割地,赔款,阿图瓦那批人权更加大。
圣贤德鲁奥在拿破仑决定离岛时,表示过犹疑。不能确定自己愿和皇帝同甘共苦,是否也包括参与这可能给法国带来巨大不幸的冒险。拿破仑表示回去后将不会再把法国带进战争深渊,会多下放权力,听取大众意愿。
拿破仑抗争不按约付年金或私议强拆挪地方无可非议,维权有理。但是,不管他本意是不是想打,都已经不能再取信于列强,他对维也纳各国分歧估计过高,而且缪拉在那不勒斯的冒失开战,更是把和的最后几微米门缝也关上了。

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发表于 2018-1-26 10:51:57 | 显示全部楼层

公爵好久不见,科西嘉营的对应网站很是不错,稍微扫了一下对1805着墨也不少,有几条有意思的材料还能在Colin的1805年战局里找到,另有几条,如Saligny写于10月26日的材料大概是作者自己挖出来的了
不知道是该可惜这么好的材料没出版,还是该庆幸作者这么慷慨
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发表于 2018-1-26 21:36:52 | 显示全部楼层
我觉得历史有很多偶然性,讲不定能夺回皇位,谁能未卜先知呢?分析战局是我们厉害还是老拿厉害?
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发表于 2018-1-26 23:19:43 | 显示全部楼层
装甲掷弹熊 发表于 2018-1-26 10:51
公爵好久不见,科西嘉营的对应网站很是不错,稍微扫了一下对1805着墨也不少,有几条有意思的材料还能在Co ...

现在还是手机用的多,电脑少,这份科西嘉营的资料还是半年前查到的,当时都没细看。文章精确到每个人的行踪,及各种背景,作者的确下工夫。
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发表于 2018-1-26 23:31:04 | 显示全部楼层
公社战士 发表于 2018-1-26 21:36
我觉得历史有很多偶然性,讲不定能夺回皇位,谁能未卜先知呢?分析战局是我们厉害还是老拿厉害?

能夺回皇位机会还是满大的,军队的主要将领士兵还是昔日旧部,关键是能否保住。拿的情报不很准,比我们现在掌握的差得远。那岂不是分析能力越厉害就越糟糕。
这是上岛请他回去的夏布隆的一段:
"Yes, Sire; kings and people, every thing seems to unite in our favour. The Saxons, the Genoese, the Belgians, the inhabitants of the banks of the Rhine, the Polanders, all refuse the new sovereigns to whom they are to be given. Italy, tired of the avarice and the grossness of the Austrians, pants for the moment of withdrawing from their sovereignty. Experience has taught the King of Naples that you are his surest protector, and he will assist the rising of the Italians whenever you wish it. The princes of the confederation of the Rhine, warned by the example of Saxony, will become the allies of your majesty after the first victory. Prussia and Russia will sit quiet, if you will only allow them to retain their new acquisitions. The Emperor of Austria, who has every thing to fear from Russia and Prussia, and nothing to hope for from the King of France, will easily consent, if you only guarantee Italy to him, to allow you to do what you think best with the Bourbons. In short, all the powers of Europe, England only excepted, are more or less interested in not declaring themselves against you; and before England can have corrupted, or raised the continent, your Majesty will be so firmly fixed on the throne, that your Majesty's enemies may try in vain to make you totter."
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发表于 2018-1-27 20:53:23 | 显示全部楼层
iron duke 发表于 2018-1-26 23:31
能夺回皇位机会还是满大的,军队的主要将领士兵还是昔日旧部,关键是能否保住。拿的情报不很准,比我们现 ...

全欧洲枪口对准拿破仑,但是谁知道未来,还是有可能性赢,历史不是岁月之书,按既定的方向发展。
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发表于 2018-1-27 21:39:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iron duke 于 2018-1-27 21:41 编辑
公社战士 发表于 2018-1-27 20:53
全欧洲枪口对准拿破仑,但是谁知道未来,还是有可能性赢,历史不是岁月之书,按既定的方向发展。

起码拿破仑在岛上设想的理想状况,远不是全欧洲枪口对准他。而是只有英国还能坚决反对。
在对欧洲百万大军(据NOFI估算10月至108万),以战促和希望相当小。即使成功(不过一两成可能),伤亡巨大,给法国带来利益也有限。
看看拿破仑这走向判断,靠谱么?
Napoleon (shaking his head), "All this is very fine; ... however, I consider it as
certain, that the Kings who have fought against me are no longer guided by the same unity, the same views, the same interests. The Emperor Alexander must esteem me: he must be able to estimate the difference which exists between Louis XVIII. and myself. If he were to understand his policy rightly, he would rather see the French sceptre in the hands of a powerful sovereign, the relentless enemy of England, than in the hands of a weak sovereign, the friend and vassal of the Prince Regent. I would give him Poland, and a great deal more, if he wished it: he knows that I have been always more inclined to tolerate his ambition than to restrain it. If he had continued my friend and my ally, I would have made him greater than he ever will be now. Prussia, and the petty Kings of the Rhenish confederation, will follow the lot cast by Russia. If I had Russia on my side, she would secure me all the second-rate powers. As to the Austrians, I do not know what they would do: they have never treated me candidly. I suppose I could keep Austria in order by threatening to deprive her of Italy. Italy is yet very grateful to me, and much attached to me: if I were to ask that country for an hundred thousand men, and an hundred millions, I should have the men and
the money. If they were to force me to make war, I could easily revolutionize the Italians; I would grant them whatever they might wish, independence or Eugene.Mejean and some others have done him harm, but, in spite of that, he is warmly loved, and highly esteemed: he deserves to be so; he has shown that he possesses a noble mind. Murat is ours. I have had great reason to complain of him. Since I have been here, he has wept for his errors, and has done his utmost to repair the injuries which he has inflicted upon me. He has regained my friendship and my confidence: his assistance, if I were engaged in war, would be very useful to me. He has little brains; he has nothing but hand and heart; but his wife would direct him. The Neapolitans like him tolerably well; and I have yet some good officers amongst them who would keep them in the right way. As to England, we should have shaken hands from Dover to Calais, if Mr. Fox had lived; but as long as that country continues to be governed by the principles and passions of Mr. Pitt, we must always be as hostile as fire and water.... From England I expect no quarter, no truce.... England knows that the instant I place my foot in France, her influence will be driven back across the seas ... as long as I live I will wage a war
of extermination against her maritime despotism. If the continental powers had seconded me; if they had not been afraid of me; if they had understood my ambition, their flags would have floated from the mast-head throughout the universe, and the world would have enjoyed peace. All things considered, foreign powers have great reasons to declare war against me; whilst there are also great reasons to induce them to remain at peace with me. It is to be feared, as I have already said to you, that they may turn the war into an affair of vanity, or that they make it a point of honour. On the other hand, it is possible that they may renounce their coalition, which has now no longer any object, in order to watch their subjects; preserving at the same time an armed neutrality, until I shall have given them sufficient guarantees.
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发表于 2018-1-27 22:06:57 | 显示全部楼层
iron duke 发表于 2018-1-27 21:39
起码拿破仑在岛上设想的理想状况,远不是全欧洲枪口对准他。而是只有英国还能坚决反对。
在对欧洲百万大 ...

靠不靠谱滑铁卢输了就什么都不知道了。当然了,我认为不靠谱,封建国家是憎恨资本主义国家的。但是对拿破仑而言,圣岛岛主很没意思,有机会他就会上。
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