拿破仑时代的著名女算命师：玛丽-安-勒诺芒

高守业

但也只有迪洛战役后波拿巴才真正考虑过自己的政治前景的吧,不过此时奥什已知过世了.

高守业

回复 9# 我们的小伍长
    UC论坛的某人“成功”预言了福岛核事故...

蓝色拿破仑

好吧我预言明年白银70美元一盎司。

高守业

回复 13# 蓝色拿破仑
    整天盼着白银尤其是银制货币涨价的是蓝拿吧.

蓝色拿破仑

我现在是盼他不涨，涨了我怎么收集我喜欢的钱币？除非我傻。

高守业

要是在1815年，威灵顿倒是给卡斯尔雷写信提到路易·菲利普登位的可能，卡斯尔雷答：“不能，至少现在不能。 ...
iron duke 发表于 2011-6-14 04:11

不知1815年拿破仑能否顺手推舟，滑铁卢战败后立即让位于路易飞利浦，以避免波旁的再次复辟？
    另外还有一个著名的预言：
在卢梭的《社会契约论》中，提醒人们注意科西嘉人在捍卫其自由权利所显示出的活力；书中还讲出了一段惊人预言，他说，总有一天科西嘉这个小岛会震惊欧洲。果然不出所料，在《社会契约论》出版后的7年拿破仑就诞生了。
当然，早年的拿破仑是卢梭疯狂的支持者，这个预言他不可能不知道。一直以此为奋斗目标也并非不可能。

卡佩

回复 2# 高守业

名侦探高守业~~~~奏乐

iron duke

不知1815年拿破仑能否顺手推舟，滑铁卢战败后立即让位于路易飞利浦，以避免波旁的再次复辟？
    另外 ...
高守业 发表于 2011-6-17 13:42

当时奥尔良派似乎势力还有限，而且维也纳会议以正统为原则。滑铁卢败归后，无论拿破仑还是富歇的临时政府，对法国未来的执政实际上也没什么选择权了。只是布吕歇尔号称只要“宰掉”拿破仑，你们爱怎么着我们不管。

高守业

当时奥尔良派似乎势力还有限，而且维也纳会议以正统为原则。滑铁卢败归后，无论拿破仑还是富歇的临时政府 ...
iron duke 发表于 2011-6-17 16:05

    或许并非如此，勒费弗尔的《拿破仑时代》和《剑桥近代史》都提到了这种可能性：

《拿破仑时代》中译本下卷 p358：

21 日拿破仑回到巴黎，仍想重整旗鼓，继续抗敌。但是议院表示反对，
次日他宣布退位。议院选一个以富歇为首的执政委员会，他决定拿破仑应于
29 日离开马尔梅松。议院宣称反对波旁王朝，6 月30 日威灵顿到达巴黎城郊，
议院派出代表团去见威灵顿。当时普遍认为宜以奥尔良公爵取代路易十八，
仍留在维也纳的塔列朗也附和此议。要使同盟各国都同意废君复辟，并非轻
而易举；亚历山大始终强烈地反对他。但是亚历山大此时不在巴黎，拿破仑
出乎意外的大败使威灵顿和路易十八得以控制解决方案。路易十八立即兼程
回国，28 日他在康布雷允诺宣布大赦。威灵顿答复议员代表说，改朝换代无
异革命行为，而革命行为势必招致法国被肢解。在这个问题上议院和执政委
员会发生分裂。7 月3 日，受任为军队总司令的达武签署了巴黎投降书，并
将军队撤退过卢瓦尔河。8 日，路易十八再即王位。

《剑桥近代史》第9卷 p448~449：





只是“拜威灵顿所赐”，法国多承受了十几年的灾难。

iron duke

但从威灵顿给布吕歇尔的信件看，他的要求是和列强君主的决定保持一致。
维也纳会议宣言：

The powers who have signed the Treaty of Paris, assembled at the Congress of Vienna, being informed of the escape of Napoleon Bonaparte, and of his entrance into France with an armed force, owe it to their own dignity, and the interest of social order, to make a solemn declaration of the sentiments which this event has excited in them.

By thus breaking the convention which had established him in the island of Elba, Bonaparte destroys the only legal title on which his existence depended, and by appearing again in France, with projects of confusion and disorder, he has deprived himself of the protection of the law, and has manifested to the universe that there can be neither peace nor truce with him.

The powers consequently declare, that Napoleon Bonaparte has placed himself without the pale of civil and social relations; and that, as an enemy and disturber of the tranquillity of the world, he has rendered himself liable to public vengeance.

They declare at the same time, that, firmly resolved to maintain entire the Treaty of Paris of the 30th of May 1814, and the dispositions sanctioned by that treaty, and those which they have resolved on, or shall hereafter resolve on, to complete and to consolidate it, they will employ all their means, and will unite all their efforts, that the general peace, the object of the wishes of Europe, and the constant purpose of their labours, may not again be troubled; and to provide against every attempt which shall threaten to re-plunge the world into the disorders and miseries of revolutions.

And although entirely persuaded that all France, rallying round its legitimate sovereign, will immediately annihilate this last attempt of criminal and impotent delirium, all the sovereigns of Europe, animated by the same sentiments, and guided by the same principles, declare, that if, contrary to all calculations, there should result from this event any real danger, they will be ready to give to the King of France and to the French nation, or to any other government that shall be attacked, as soon as they shall be called upon, all the assistance requisite to restore public tranquillity, and to make a common cause against all those who should undertake to compromise it.

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/De ... _Congress_of_Vienna

在1814年法国南方进军也是如此，当时的王党广泛散布流言，比如“昂古莱姆和威灵顿并马冲锋”等，给波旁复辟制造舆论，威灵顿下令压制这类言论。因为当时联军政界要人还未定下法国未来的权力归属，直到F．庞森比(滑铁卢九死一生那位，他的远房兄弟没那么走运)带来卡斯尔雷的信。