这些信息对你的观点没有什么证明价值，我觉得你的知识太多但缺乏军事常识。1815年战役前的情势是非常复杂的，开战前各种情报信息混杂，这些资料只是展示了联军获得的法军在部署信息，并没有确定法军就会主动入侵比利时。从事后看这些部署信息是准确的，但是别忘了还有很多的其他矛盾的信息同样也会混杂在里面，影响联军的决策，只是没有列在这里罢了。如果跟据这些信息就可以确定法军的进攻行动，你去看二战期间1944年盟军登陆地点一定会判断是加来而绝不是诺曼底。另外即使联军提前获知法军的部署位置，但也不意味着法军就会主动进攻,也可能是为了准备迎接联军的进攻而做的准备，因为毕竟比利时的英普军是可能最先入侵法国的，而且这个行动就计划在6月底或者7月。这些道理还要我给你解释吗？ 实际的情况是5月份联军当然会对法军主动进攻做准备，同时也在准备主动入侵法国的行动，关键是他们认为哪个可能性更高。同时他们还收到各种来源真假难辨的情报，这对他们的判断是随时有影响的，事实上为了达到突然的效果，法军直到6月14日才开始集结，请问在5月初仅仅凭几份法军的部署情报就可以轻易得出联军已确认拿破仑会主动进攻的结论，太小儿科了吧，战争哪里有那么简单。
事实上，5月初联军不仅在准备法军可能的进攻，同时还在准备主动进攻法国的计划。
On 3 May, Wellington and Blücher met at Thirlemont to discuss their strategy to defeat Napoleon. At this time they were both building up their forces with a view to an offensive into France in concert with the other allied armies, probably in July.
不可否认在5月期间联军是准备了应对如果拿破仑主动进攻威灵顿和布吕歇尔如何互相支援的问题，但这个方案由于双方的观点不同其实是有漏洞的，这个以后再讲。
By the end of May, both allied armies were complete and ready to start the campaign. As no threat had developed, when Blücher made an official visit to the Netherlands between 28 and 30 May, all the talk was of an allied offensive into France; all thoughts of coordinating defensive arrangements had been forgotten and the dichotomy between forward and rearward concentrations was no longer an issue.
Just a few days before Napoleon launched his offensive, Blücher had written to his wife, ‘We shall soon enter France. We might remain here another year, for Bonaparte will never attack us.’
当然进入6月份，联军越来越倾向于法军会主动进攻，
Wellington and Blücher ...both commanders had very effective intelligence networks and were well aware the French were concentrating. These networks had reported the intensive build-up of troops to the front of the Prussian outposts, and however hard the French tried to camouflage their presence, the Prussians received a steady trickle of information on their arrival. From the 12th, the forward formations were clear that a French offensive was imminent and this information was passed back up the chain of command.
6月13日，布吕歇尔开始调整普军的位置准备应对法军的进攻，但是这些都还不能百分百确定法军的进攻时间以及进攻地点。 总体上上，法军的进攻行动虽然没有达到百分百的突然性，至少还有一定的效果的，而且完全不是联军5月初就认定法军要主动进攻这种情况。否则以威灵顿和布吕歇尔这样优秀的指挥官，在5月28-30日的会议期间居然没有讨论如何共同防御的问题还在讨论入侵，这不是让人笑掉大牙吗。
另外，拿破仑选择的攻击两军的结合部也是很高明的，这里面的玄机后面准备详细说，别忘了还有佯攻的可能, 看看威灵顿的反应：
Still convinced that the move of the French army to their new concentration areas was a feint, Wellington took no such precautions and awaited fresh intelligence to confirm that Napoleon was not going to launch his offensive on Mons before he committed himself.
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楼主: 偶木散人
楼主
发表于 2019-1-2 15:04:45
发表于 2019-1-2 21:35:11
